Black Swans Volitality and Flexibility

By: Geary Sikich

We live in a volatile world full of uncertainty. It’s all about targeted flexibility, the art of being prepared, rather than preparing for specific events. Being able to respond rather than being able to forecast, facilitates the ability to respond to the consequences of an event.

Perspective

It seems that there many experts today who are jumping on the bandwagon and laying claim to some aspect of, or permutation of, the “Black Swan” concept. My question is, ”

How is it possible for someone to be able to identify the unknown – unknowns, the highly improbable and extremely rare events before they happen?” Even Nassim Taleb, the author of the famous book, “The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” has not yet mastered this. Or he is just not claiming the title, “Master Black Swan Hunter” yet.

Nassim Taleb, author of the book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” defines a “Black Swan” as:

“A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.”

If we take the three principal characteristics – Unpredictability, Massive Impact, Explaining the event away after the fact; and assess each, perhaps we too can become “Master Black Swan Hunters.”

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