Statistics

Black Swans, Shapeshifters and Flexibility

By: Geary Sikich and John M. Stagl It seems that there many experts today who are jumping on the bandwagon and laying claim to some aspect of, or permutation of, the “Black Swan” concept. I recently read about someone claiming…

When is a Black Swan Not a Black Swan?

By: Geary Sikich Introduction There seem to be a lot of sightings of ‘black swans’ lately. Should we be concerned or are we wishfully thinking, caught up in media hype; or are we misinterpreting what a black swan event really…

Black Swans Volitality and Flexibility

By: Geary Sikich We live in a volatile world full of uncertainty. It’s all about targeted flexibility, the art of being prepared, rather than preparing for specific events. Being able to respond rather than being able to forecast, facilitates the…

Black Swans Grey Swans White Swans Vigilance

By: Geary Sikich We hear a lot about things that are being called “Black Swans” today thanks to Nassim Taleb and his extremely successful book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” now in its second edition. I…

Model Risk – Key Concepts

A model is “a quantitative method, system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories, techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates.” Model risk is the risk associated with using financial models that are inherently…