Black Swans, Shapeshifters and Flexibility


By: Geary Sikich and John M. Stagl

It seems that there many experts today who are jumping on the bandwagon and laying claim to some aspect of, or permutation of, the “Black Swan” concept. I recently read about someone claiming to be a “Master Black Swan Hunter.” My question is, “What constitutes a Master Black Swan Hunter?” Does this mean that we have “Apprentice Black Swan Hunters” and “Certified Black Swan Hunters?” There must be some criteria that are used to determine when one has achieved the refulgent “Master Black Swan Hunter” status. I mean how does one reach such an exulted status? I guess that being able to identify the unknown – unknowns, the highly improbable and extremely rare events before they happen is, in itself, a “Black Swan Event.” Even Nassim Taleb, the author of the famous book, “The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” has not yet mastered this. Or he is just not claiming the title, “Master Black Swan Hunter” yet.

The definition of a Black Swan according to Nassim Taleb, author of the book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” is:

“A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.”

Continue reading here: Shape Shifters Black Swans Disasters

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